The reasonable expectations for Leafs forward Calle Jarnkrok this season
It's really anyone's guess as to what the Leafs have planned for the remainder of the summer. Are they done adding? Does GM Kyle Dubas have any tricks up his sleeve? When will Rasmus Sandin sign his extension? These are all reasonable questions to ask, but unfortunately for now, we are in a bit of a holding pattern.
One thing we can do is to start going over some of the Leafs' new signings and acquisitions and look at what they have to offer and what the reasonable expectations are for the coming season. Since we haven't heard much about him since the signing, let's take a look at Calle Jarnkrok.
Jarnkrok, 30, is coming off of a bit of a strange season. After posting 28 points in 49 games in his final year in Nashville, putting him on pace for a 47-point season, which would have been the best statistical season in his NHL career up to that point. However, rather than protecting him, the Preds left Jarnkrok exposed in the Seattle Expansion Draft. Of course, we know that he was selected by the Kraken.
Through 49 games with Seattle last season, Jarnkrok was producing at a similar rate, but found himself on the receiving end of a trade to Calgary, where adjusting to a new team and an entirely new system mid-season proved a challenge. The result was a rough 17-game run with the Flames that saw the Galve, Sweden native post just 4 assists, with no goals to his credit. Obviously, that wasn't the real Jarnkrok. The sample size is very small compared to the 49 games he played with a worse Seattle team and the way he was utilized by Flames coach Darryl Sutter differed from his utilization under Kraken head coach Dave Hakstol.
The Leafs signed Jarnkrok to a 4-year, $8.4M deal in free agency, which carries a $2.1M cap hit. At first, Jarnkrok appeared to be an Alexander Kerfoot replacement, as he is the same type of player. Defensively responsible, a good forechecker, has the abililty to contribute 30-40 points in a middle six role, can kill penalties and can play both center and wing. However, here we are two thirds of the way through the month of August and Kerfoot is still on the roster. It's becoming increasingly likely that Jarnkrok is viewed as Mikheyev's replacement and that Kerfoot sticks around as well.
In terms of what we can expect, Jarnkrok is likely to play 3rd line RW, along with David Kampf and Pierre Engvall to form a shutdown line that could be nightmare fuel for the opposition. The trio will combine solid two-way play to keep plays to the outside, active sticks to help force turnovers and speed to convert those turnovers into counterattacks from the rush. He's likely also to join Marner, Kampf, Kerfoot, Engvall and fellow newcomer Nicolas Aube-Kubel on the PK.
As far as production goes, we can almost certainly expect Jarnkrok to produce double digits for goals, just as he's done in 7 of his 9 NHL seasons. In fact, the only time Jarnkrok hasn't produced at least 10 goals was in his rookie and sophomore seasons. Give the Leafs' high octane offense, I'd imagine he's a lock for 15 goals - especially if he sees some time in the top 6 at points throughout the season due to injury. He also averages almost 17 assists per season, so I can imagine that's his absolute floor in Toronto.
So all things considered, I'd imagine that we're going to see a ton of defensive zone starts, some special teams utilization and at least 32 points from Jarnkrok. To be honest, I think that's aiming a bit low as well. A 38-40 point season is certainly possible, provided he finds some synergy with his new line mates and is able to help generating rush chances on the counterattack. If he receives some looks on the 2nd power play unit, or any time within the team's top six, we could even see Jarnkrok push for career highs in goals, assists and points this year, finishing in and around the 45-point mark.
| POLL | ||
AOUT 19 | 234 ANSWERS The reasonable expectations for Leafs forward Calle Jarnkrok this season How many points do you think Calle Jarnkrok finishes with this season? | ||
| 29 or less | 51 | 21.8 % |
| 30-35 | 76 | 32.5 % |
| 36-40 | 59 | 25.2 % |
| Over 40 | 48 | 20.5 % |
| List of polls | ||
