Through the first quarter of the season, by the numbers, here's how far the Leafs are likely to go in the playoffs
First and foremost, I'd like to take the time to wish our friends to the South a happy American Thanksgiving. This time of the year is an important one in the NHL, as teams begin to track where they're at around the quarter-mark of the season.
Some teams, such as the Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas Golden Knights and Vancouver Canucks, have already played 20 games, while most other teams have played 18 or 19 games. The Toronto Maple Leafs have played just 17 games this season, largely due to the trip to Sweden for the Global Series providing them with a week off leading up to their pair of games in Stockholm and 5 additional days off coming back from the trip to become re-acclimated to the Eastern Time Zone. The Ottawa Senators have played the fewest games at just 15 thus far.
As we approach the quarter-mark of the 2023-24 season, some things are becoming very clear to us in the standings. First, if we haven't learned by now, we should certainly stop underestimating the Boston Bruins, who lead the league once again with 31 points. The San Jose Sharks are cruising towards the best chance at the 1st overall pick in the draft lottery, with just 7 points thus far. However, perhaps the most surprising story is the Edmonton Oilers posting the 3rd-worst record in the NHL, collecting just 11 points - just 1 more point than the Chicago Blackhawks, who have 10 points on the season.
Aside from the fact that the Oilers have just a 43% chance to qualify for the playoffs at this point in the season, the Toronto Maple Leafs, who also started slow, do not share the same misfortune as their Western Canadian counterpart in Alberta. The Leafs currently boast a 90% likelihood of qualifying for the playoffs. The numbers beyond that for the Leafs, though, aren't really anything to write home about.
Per The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn's model, the Leafs currently have just a 40% chance to make it out of the first round. That percentage drops to just 16% to make it out of Round 2 and onto the Conference Finals. At this point in the season, Luszczyszyn's model has the Leafs at just 7% to make it to the Stanley Cup Final and just 4% to win the Cup.
We do know that the Leafs are working hard behind the scenes to shore up their blueline, so if/when that happens, if they can begin to cut down on the number of defensive miscues and clean things up in their own zone, these percentages will increase.
Winning a Stanley Cup is difficult. It might be the hardest trophy to win in professional sports, when you compare how the game is played to how other games are played and how, in some instances, a single elite player can sway the outcome of a series or playoff run. In football, for example, an elite quarterback can be the difference between winning and losing in the Super Bowl. In basketball, teams aren't rolling 4 lines. In baseball, a pitcher can singlehandedly win you a game. In hockey, the closest example might be a hot goaltender, but even then, there are things teams can do to throw a goalie off, including screens, crashing the net and setting up for tips and deflections.
When it comes to comparing the Stanley Cup Final, World Series and Super Bowl, the biggest difference is that there are no structured changes between offense and defense like there are in football and baseball. In hockey, teams go back and forth in the same stretch of play, sometimes for minutes on end. The pace of play is much quicker. Even with basketball, there is a shot clock to worry about. This doesn't exist in hockey.
Ultimately, it would be nice to see the Leafs make a move or two on the blueline to help improve their chances. However, I'm not going to sit here and pretend like hockey isn't a lot more random than any of these other sports. Whether the Leafs have a 7% chance of making the Finals or a 25% chance, we've seen first hand that it's not enough just to make it there - you also have to be set up to win when you get there. The Leafs, as they're currently constructed, are not set up to win there. With a couple of trades, however, they might better position themselves to win.
| POLL | ||
NOVEMBRE 23 | 256 ANSWERS Through the first quarter of the season, by the numbers, here's how far the Leafs are likely to go in the playoffs Will the Leafs make it to at least the Eastern Conference Final this season? | ||
| Yes | 139 | 54.3 % |
| No | 117 | 45.7 % |
| List of polls | ||
