Weighing the risk-reward balance of acquiring John Gibson
The Leafs are in a precarious position this summer when it comes to their situation in goal. On one hand, they bring back Jack Campbell and hope that he can dial it in at the right time for the Leafs to finally break through the glass ceiling. On the other, they go the unknown route and bring in someone with whom they are not as familiar and just hope that there is a good fit.
Both options have their upsides and their downsides and we can play the pros and cons game with either option all day long. The fact of the matter is that the Leafs cannot afford to make the wrong decision here. At this point, the wrong decision may be to stick with the horse that hasn't shown the ability to win the race.
If the Leafs do decide to allow Campbell to walk as a free agent or trade his negotaiting rights for a late pick, the only logical move is to make a move to acquire a legitimate number one goalie who they can confidently ride during the postseason. Run down the list of all of the biggest contenders in recent years. What do they all have in common? A goalie who is capable of carrying his team when it matters. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Carey Price, Tuukka Rask, Braden Holtby (at his peak), and then going back a bit, Corey Crawford, Jonathan Quick, Patrick Roy, Martin Brodeur.. winning teams, more often than not, have winning goaltenders. Bargain bin shopping is not going to help the Leafs here, and I think Sheldon Keefe and Kyle Dubas know that.
Yes, there are risks with trading for John Gibson. If the rumours of the Ducks being frustrated with Gibson's attitude and body language are true, then maybe he'll be more of a distraction than a solution if placed under the microscope in Toronto. But then again, maybe he's simply tired of playing hard behind a team who can't win.
The narrative out there is that the Leafs can't win - but have they ever really had a bona-fide number one who is capable of stealing games in the Matthews era? Sure, Campbell has enjoyed his streaks of success and Andersen was pitched as the solution to the problem, but really was more of a problem than a solution when playoff time came around. John Gibson may very well be who the Leafs hoped Frederik Andersen was. A true number one who can make saves that he has no business making to steal the Leafs games that they may not otherwise have won.
Look, we know what John Gibson is capable of. Anyone who wants to lean on him being washed and being one of the main reasons why the Ducks are a basement team is really not paying attention. The Ducks hung around with names like Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Rickard Rakell, Ryan Kesler, Hampus Lindholm, Jakob Silfverberg, Sami Vatanen, Kyle Palmieri, Pat Maroon and the tail end of Teemu Selanne, but despite posting winning records from 2012-2018, were they ever really the killers that they were in 2007 when they were a TRUE contender? Gibson was always the heir apparent in Anaheim, despite competing for time with the likes of Jonas Hiller, Viktor Fasth, Ilya Bryzgalov, Anton Khudobin, Frederik Andersen and Jonathan Bernier. What he didn't have was the proper roster in front of him to maximize the potential of his best years.
In Toronto, Gibson would have the best team he has ever played behind in his 9-year NHL career. It's really that simple. Elite offensive team, strong defensive team, strong penalty killing (which is also where Gibson really seems to thrive) and with Gibson in the fold, the Leafs are a legit total package team.
The narrative that Gibson is washed.. I don't buy it for a second. Goaltenders, especially the elite ones, just don't stop being good overnight. They simply don't. I think his lack of success over the last 3 seasons is a product of the environment rather than a product of his play. There is a risk there, no doubt. But I think the risk is more related to how much the Leafs would have to give up to acquire Gibson than it is related to the prospect of him actually being in a steep decline at 28 years of age. In my mind, this move is a no-brainer if you're Kyle Dubas. If Gibson is available, you simply find a way to bring him in. You don't think about it, you don't over-analyze the situation, you just shoot first and ask questions later. Fortune favours the brave. If the Leafs are fine enjoying the shallow waters, that's a huge problem. Sooner or later, they need to venture into the deeper waters if they really want to swim.
