Why Kyle Dubas should send a thank you letter to Bo Horvat and Lou Lamoriello
It's no secret that the Toronto Maple Leafs have some major work ahead this summer, largely referring to the contract extensions due to Auston Matthews and William Nylander. While Auston is in a league of his own and is likely to become the highest paid player in NHL history, there are a lot of questions about what sort of contract Nylander is eyeing come July 1st.
Nylander hasn't exactly been the portrait of consistency during his 8-year NHL career, but he did have a career year last season and is on pace to set new career highs in goals and points this season. Currently boasting 28 goals and 59 points in just 52 games this season, it's likely that Nylander may have been eyeing a $10M AAV. However, thanks to Bo Horvat and New York Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello, Nylander's AAV may be a little more modest than anyone may have otherwise expected.
Horvat signed an 8-year extension with the Isles this week, worth $8.5M per season, which may actually help Kyle Dubas during the William Nylander negotiations. Nylander and Horvat are close in age, were both top-10 draft picks just one season apart and have both produced more than 400 points in their NHL careers. While they don't necessarily play the game the same way, they have produced very similar numbers so far this season (28 goals and 59 points for Nylander versus 32 goals and 55 points for Horvat). Not only that, but since Nylander is a winger and Horvat is a center, the newest Islander plays a tougher position with more responsibility and, as such, is likely to deserve more.
Naturally, every team has their own individual internal cap structure and Nylander's agent, Lewis Gross, will likely be looking at the cap hits of Marner and Matthews - in and around that $11M AAV - as a benchmark for where his client deserves to be. In addition, with a significant cap jump expected the year Nylander's extension will take effect, he may be looking for a significant pay increase. Let's be honest - he certainly deserves it with the way he's been playing. However, the Leafs also have a much different cap structure than the Isles and if Nylander wants to remain in Toronto, he may have to be willing to take a bit less than what he'd get on the open market or risk pricing himself out of Toronto.
Horvat's next contract accounts for 10.3% of the salary cap. If Nylander were to pursue a similar percentage with the cap at or near $88M, that would give him an AAV $9.06M, far below the $11M that his agent is sure to ask for. Now, call me crazy, but if the Leafs can get Nylander locked in for another 6+ years at $9M, that has to be viewed as an absolute win, right?
The only wild card here is that Lewis Gross has shown in the past with both Nylander and Rasmus Sandin that holdouts aren't a problem for him and his clients. Honestly, I'm hoping that Nylander takes more of a Sandin approach this time around, contacts his agent and tells him he wants to take the deal on the table rather than missing any playing time - because as we saw in the last holdout for Nylander, when he finally did sign and came back to play, the on-ice results were horrendous and it took the fanbase nearly 4 years to forgive him and move on.
Lamoriello and his stingy ways has really given Kyle Dubas a solid contract comparable at a very reasonable price. Now it's on Dubas to see if he can convert on a deal for less than market value on Nylander. We all know how inflated the market can get in Toronto, so I don't envy Dubas at all here, but if he can manage to lock Nylander down at an AAV anywhere below $10M, it will look really good on him and provide the Leafs with an excellent player who has the undeniable talent to exceed the value of his contract with his play on the ice, much like what we're seeing him do now at under $7M.
| POLL | ||
FEVRIER 8 | 411 ANSWERS Why Kyle Dubas should send a thank you letter to Bo Horvat and Lou Lamoriello Is Bo Horvat a good contract comparable for William Nylander? | ||
| Yes | 237 | 57.7 % |
| No | 44 | 10.7 % |
| Willy is worth a lot more | 73 | 17.8 % |
| Horvat is worth a lot more | 57 | 13.9 % |
| List of polls | ||
