Why the Leafs shouldn't and won't buy out John Tavares

Obviously, the Leafs will be either trading or buying out Mrazek, but if you think for a second that the Leafs will buy out their captain this summer, they won't. The move makes absolutely zero sense for both long term and short term reasons. In the short term, Tavares has 3 years left on his deal with a cap hit of $11M, if the Leafs were to buy him out, they would only save ~$600K each of the 3 remaining years of his deal. Not even enough to sign someone to a league minimum contract. Instead of an $11M cap hit, it would be approximately $10.4M.

Yes, I'm aware that Tavares is not the most fleet of foot, but he is still a highly skilled player and thinks the game better than most, so what is the point in buying out a superstar to save so little in cap space and not be able to replace him?

Long term, it doesn't make much sense for the Leafs either. A buyout would mean his contract is on the Leafs cap for 6 more years instead of 3, albeit those additional 3 years are at cap hits of ~$330K. When his contract is done, Tavares will be 35 and will have made well north of $100M in his career and will likely sign a Spezza or Giordano type deal to finish out his career as a Leaf in a depth role. He will almost certainly have lost another step or two by the time his contract is over, but he would still be a very serviceable third or fourth line player that could contribute on the powerplay and penalty kill.

When all is said and done, Tavares will be a member of the Leafs for a long time.