With all of the discourse around Leafs prospects taking too long to make the NHL, the Liljegren situation is proof of concept
Leading up to the 2022 NHL Entry Draft, there has been a lot of discussion over the length of time it has taken many Leafs prospects to graduate to full-time NHLers. In fact, if you exclude Carl Grundstrom and Sean Durzi, who were both dealt to the LA Kings, the Leafs have had just 4 players suit up in 40+ games over the last 6 seasons (Auston Matthews, Adam Brooks, Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren.
Now, obviously that conversion rate is not good enough. However, if we exclude the 2016 and 2017 drafts (which were run by Lou Lamoriello and Mark Hunter), the Leafs do have an abundance of prospects who project to play NHL games and a few who may even end up being stars drafted between 2018-2021.
Word on the street is that 2018 6th rounder Pontus Holmberg could be in line to challenge for a spot in training camp. Filip Kral, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev and Mac Hollowell may also be in line to play some NHL games this season, at the very least for a brief look, so that management knows what they have in these players.
The 2019 draft boasts the likes of Nick Robertson, who is still yet to grab hold of a full-time NHL spot, but it does appear likely that he'll have his best shot yet this fall. NCAA standout Nick Abruzzese also played 9 games for the Leafs at the end of last season, so it'll be interesting to see if he can gain a step this summer and come back and challenge for a full time spot in camp. We know that he has a very high hockey IQ and he was more than a point-per-game throughout his NCAA career, so hopefully he can put it all together at the NHL level and give the Leafs another solid depth option. Center Mikhail Abramov and defenseman Mikko Kokkonen also came from the 2019 draft and project to play NHL games.
The last two drafts, 2020 and 2021, appear to boast the biggest potential home runs yet. In 2020, the Buds drafted Rodion Amirov with the 15th overall pick, and he still may turn out to be a top six NHL left winger yet. However, this past year, Amirov was diagnosed with a brain tumor, for which he is undergoing treatment in Germany. The hope is that he will make a full recovery, but obviously hockey is not the main concern right now.
Aside from Amirov, the Leafs also drafted Roni Hirvonen, Topi Niemela, Artur Akhtyamov, William Villeneuve, Dmitry Ovchinnikov, Veeti Miettinen, Axel Rindell, and Ryan Tverberg - all of whom have shown great early returns. Still, prospects are just that. Prospects. They need time to develop and we are likely at least a year or two away from seeing any of these players being a realistic option for the Leafs, even in depth roles.
The Leafs had just 3 picks in 2021, but appear to have struck gold with all 3. Obviously, Matthew Knies appears to be the crown jewel of Leafs draft picks in the Kyle Dubas era, but Ty Voit and Vyacheslav Peksa also stand to be very important pieces for the Buds.
Voit, 19, is coming off of a massive breakout season with the Sarnia Sting in the OHL, where he potted 80 points in 67 games, despite losing his entire 2020-21 season to the pandemic. Compare that to his rookie season in the OHL, when he notched just 28 points in 49 games in 2019-20, and it's pretty clear that Voit was likely going to be much higher than a 5th round pick had he not lost a season. That type of growth after a year of missed development is almost unprecedented.
Peksa, also 19, enjoyed a banner year in 2021-22, posting ridiculous numbers for his junior team over in Europe this year. His 30-17-8 record across 56 games is a good sign that the Magnitogorsk, RUS native can start a high volume of games and be very effective. His 1.79 GAA and .936 SV% have a lot of Leafs fans excited about what type of goaltender he might develop into at the NHL level. His 9 shutouts this season are also noteworthy.
It's not a foregone conclusion that any of these young players will 100% pan out as NHLers, but the best predictor of future success is current and past success and a lot of these guys are plenty successful where they are in their respective careers now. There's no real reason, other than blind pessimism, to assume that they don't all have a shot.
We don't have to look too far back to find an example of a player who everyone thought was going to be a bust because it took him a little longer to develop than most people would have liked. Timothy Liljegren was drafted 17th overall in 2017 and didn't establish himself as a capable full-time NHL defender until this season.
Listen, I get it. Being patient with prospects and with player development is not easy - especially when those players are first and second round picks. But Leafs GM Kyle Dubas and the scouting staff have done an incredible job in re-stocking the cupboards after an abysmal draft resume from Lou Lamoriello and Mark Hunter left the Buds with almost nothing nothing to show for their efforts outside of the 1st round. The fact that Dubas may have selected a lot of "projects" or players whose development arcs appeared to be longer term shows that he's a much more methodical GM. He's not going to gun for players simply because of their size or the fact that they're close to NHL-ready. He's drafting players who have the best statistical chance to succeed given their hockey IQ, intelligence, skill set and work ethic.
I have a strong feeling that, much like the way we saw their patience pay off with Timothy Liljegren, we're going to see that same patience pay dividends with players like Robertson, Holmberg, Niemela, Villeneuve and others as well. The Leafs are taking their time to bring these guys in the right way, rather than rushing them in before they're ready. Rather than being criticized for it, I think this management regime should be celebrated for it. Rome wasn't built in a day and I feel like Dubas is much more of a methodical architect than he's given credit for.
| POLL | ||
JUIN 23 | 313 ANSWERS With all of the discourse around Leafs prospects taking too long to make the NHL, the Liljegren situation is proof of concept Who will be the next big Leafs prospect to break out? | ||
| Robertson | 70 | 22.4 % |
| Niemela | 37 | 11.8 % |
| Knies | 177 | 56.5 % |
| Other | 29 | 9.3 % |
| List of polls | ||
