Maple Leafs rank surprisingly high among NHL teams in spending efficiency
Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic ranked every team based on contract efficiency and how each team spent their money with the Leafs finishing pretty high on his list.
The basis of this exercise was to capture how every team in the NHL has spent their money so far and whether or not they were efficient. Free agency always brings about bidding wars and over-inflated market values, which can tank a team in the long-run. It's always nice to sign the big fish on the first day of free agency but more likely than not, the contract ages poorly - with some exceptions. Dom also prefaces this by stating the following:
"The goal here is to grade contracts empirically with the same context being applied to each player across the league: How much value does each player bring to the table per year and over the life of the contract? The way that's measured comes from comparing a player's Net Rating and the expected salary that comes with it to a player's current contract.
What players have already done holds no merit, this is about the future value of the deal. Contract clauses and bonus structure are important, but not considered in this assessment. Players on LTIR were not considered."
With that being said, the Toronto Maple Leafs finished 8th on his list this season, which is 6 better than last season when they came in 14th. Auston Matthews and Joseph Woll's contracts received a glowing A+, Timothy Liljegren and Jake McCabe received the next highest grade at a B+, and Bobby McMann and Anthony Stolarz rounded out the top with B's.
Surprisingly William Nylander's contract received the lowest grade at D as it was ruled that his annual surplus is at a negative 1.6 million and his total surplus sits at negative 12.7 million. Conversely, Matthews' annual surplus sits at 5.1 million and his total surplus at 20.4 million.
His full analysis reads as follows:
"Contract values aren't stagnant and timing is everything. It's a lot like the real market in that way and the Leafs bought the top on William Nylander.
He started the year as an $8.5 million player, peaked at an $11.5 million valuation and then settled in at $10 million when all was said and done. The problem was the Leafs signed him right at that peak and only a few months later were left with a deal that could prove difficult to live up to. Nylander has the ability to look like an $11.5 million player or better, it's a matter of whether he can consistently be that year in and year out � and the model raises skepticism considering he doesn't have a lengthy resume in that range.
Thankfully for Toronto, that's offset (for the next four years anyway) by Auston Matthews' extension, which is a bargain for what he is as an annual MVP contender. As one of the three best players on earth, he's closer to a league-max player than one that will only command 15 percent of the cap.
The Leafs have some good deals and bad deals across the board like most teams, but the reason they rank so high is what they've done in net. Anthony Stolarz was the highest upside bet available in free agency and to get him at $2.5 million is great value. And if Joseph Woll is indeed the goalie of the future the franchise feels he is, a three-year extension at $3.66 million per is a bet well worth making. That could end up being a massive bargain if he ends up being the real deal. There's risk there given his small sample and injury history, but Woll feels worth that risk.
The model projects a lot of upside in both those goalie plays � we'll see if it pans out given the difficulty in predicting goaltending with any degree of accuracy. If not, Toronto's cap picture comes in a lot closer to average."
Overall, for a team that has been crucified for not handling their money efficiently and for paying over the top, finishing in 8th place is pretty good business. The only hindrance to the Maple Leafs based on Dom's model is Nylander's contract and whether or not he'll be able to live up to the hype of an 11.5 million dollar player. For Matthews it's simple and he has shown his proclivity with a Hart Trophy and 3 Rocket Richard's but it's high-time for Nylander to prove his worth as he enters the first year of an 8-year deal in 2024-25.
Everywhere else, the Leafs have essentially done a really good job but there remains question marks on the back-end with the somewhat lucrative deals handed out to veterans Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. While in goal, the Leafs have a ton of upside with a very low combined cap hit.
Unsurprisingly, Florida finished in first place with 4 A+ contracts in Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, and Gustav Forsling. Edmonton finished in 2nd place with 4 A+ contracts of their own, Colorado followed at number 3, Carolina finished 4th, and the Vancouver Canucks rounded out the top-5. Conversely, the Columbus Blue Jackets came in last place with a D-, San Jose finished 31st, and St. Louis finished 30th.
Source for Dom Luszczyszyn's article:NHL contract efficiency rankings, 2024: Which teams spend their money most wisely?
| POLL | ||
26 JUILLET | 1458 ANSWERS Maple Leafs rank surprisingly high among NHL teams in spending efficiency Do you think William Nylander will live up to the his $11.5 million cap hit next season? | ||
| Yes, he has improved on a yearly basis | 673 | 46.2 % |
| No, 11.5 million dollars is way too steep | 578 | 39.6 % |
| Eventually it'll balance out with the cap rising | 207 | 14.2 % |
| List of polls | ||
