Reasonable expectations for William Nylander in the first year of his mega deal
After signing a contract extension during the 2023-24 regular season, what should we expect to see from William Nylander in the first season of his 8-year mega deal?
There were a lot of questions regarding the status of Nylander and his expiring contract as we entered the 2023-24 season, but all of them were squashed when Brad Treliving got the deal done at the beginning of January. The budding star signed an 8-year deal worth $92 million at an AAV of $11.5 million that would start in 2024-25 and run through 2032.
When the deal was completed, there were no more questions about Nylander's future with the Leafs, his fit with the club, and whether or not they would have to choose between paying him long-term or having to possibly trade him at the risk of losing him for nothing at the end of the season. He was going to be a member of the Leafs for a long time.
It was quite the 2023-24 season for Nylander as well as he had scored 21 goals and 54 points in just 37 games leading up to his extension. The rest of his season left a lot to be desired as he finished with 19 goals and 44 points in 45 games and entered the post-season having scored just one goal and 5 points in his last 13 games. He wound up missing the first 3 games of the playoffs but played a pivotal role in Game 6 and 7 before they ultimately lost in overtime to the Boston Bruins.
Now with a full off-season to recover and an important training camp around the corner, what are the reasonable expectations for Nylander's first season of his new mega-deal? Can we expect to see the Nylander pre-contract extension? Or are we in for the Nylander who struggled mightily at the end of the year?
Nylander has been on an upward trajectory since the 2019-20 season after stumbling out of the gates in 2018-19. He scored just 7 goals and 27 points in 54 games before potting 31 goals and 59 points during the COVID-interrupted season of 2019-20. He then tallied 42 points in 51 games in 2021-22, 34 goals and 80 points in 81 games in 2021-22, 40 goals and 87 points in 82 games in 2022-23, and 40 goals and 98 points in 82 games last year.
Based on those numbers, we could be in for another increase in 2024-25 and see the first 100-point season from the 28-year-old.
Going back to last year, Nylander started the season with a 17-game point streak where he tallied 27 points. He then collected a 13-game point streak with 21 points shortly after, and only went without a point three times in the first 37 games. Even before the final stretch of the season, Nylander was sitting at 40 goals and 95 points in 73 games. Something was clearly bothering him at the end, otherwise he was going to finish the year well above 100 points and nearing the 50-goal mark.
Going into the new season, he will also be heavily relied upon with the Leafs not having added to the offense this off-season. The power play is going to be the bread and butter and his offensive game through the man advantage has improved on a near year-to-year basis. He collected 31 power play points in 2021-22, 28 points in 2022-23, and a career-high 35 points last year.
The power play finished 7th best in the NHL in 2023-24 and the hope is that with Marc Savard now running the ship, they can improve on that mark and get closer to their 2022-23 pedestal that saw them claim the 2nd best man advantage at 26.02%.
Alongside Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and Morgan Rielly with the extra attacker, look for Nylander to claim his first 100-point season and continue on his exponential growth. At worst, he's going to have a season similar to 2023-24 and even that would bode well for the Maple Leafs, who are going to need every bit of Nylander's offensive wizardry to navigate through a gruelling 82-game season.
Source for William Nylander's statistics: Hockey-ReferenceWilliam Nylander
| POLL | ||
14 JUILLET | 438 ANSWERS Reasonable expectations for William Nylander in the first year of his mega deal How many points do you expect William Nylander to total? | ||
| 70-79 | 52 | 11.9 % |
| 80-89 | 151 | 34.5 % |
| 90-99 | 152 | 34.7 % |
| 100+ for the first time in his career | 83 | 18.9 % |
| List of polls | ||
