A contract extension that makes sense for both the Leafs and the newly-acquired Ryan O'Reilly
When the Leafs pulled off a trade, bringing in former Conn Smythe Trophy winner and Stanley Cup Champion Ryan O'Reilly, they parted with a lot of draft capital, which Leafs Nation wasn't overly fond of, given the already low number of picks that the Leafs have over the next 2 drafts. Leafs GM Kyle Dubas revealed during a press conference on Saturday morning that he was more comfortable dealing from the teams remaining draft picks than moving prospects who the team is already invested in and familiar with.
Before Dubas spoke with the media, there was some speculation that the Leafs could look to extend O'Reilly soon after the trade, but Dubas' comments the next morning poured some cold water on that idea, as Dubas believes that the two sides should "live together before getting married".
Well, since those comments were made, O'Reilly has already played one game and is part way through his 2nd game with the team. While it's still too early to commit to an extension, the fit seems very good in the early-going. Acquiring O'Reilly has allowed the Leafs to shift John Tavares over to the left wing and has given the Buds two really strong scoring lines up top, with Bunting, Matthews and Nylander on the top line, while Tavares, O'Reilly and Marner create a very formidable second line.
If and when the Leafs finally do reach out to O'Reilly's agent to begin talking extension, there is a deal that makes a lot of sense for both sides. O'Reilly was absolutely beaming in his pre-game and post-game interviews on Saturday, which shows the excitement and enthusiasm he has for being a member of his hometown Toronto Maple Leafs. O'Reilly, who hails from the nearby Clinton, ON, is now 32 years of age and may wish to make his stay a little closer to home just a little more permanent. He's a pending UFA and is coming off of a lengthy deal with the Blues that carried a $7.5M cap hit. His career earnings exceed $76M and he might be keen to take a little bit less than that $7.5M to play at home during the twilight of his career, where the Leafs will give him a really good opportunity to pursue another Stanley Cup.
Term is tricky on this one, because of O'Reilly's age, so I don't think the Leafs would be interested in an 8-year extension. On O'Reilly's part, a short-term deal (2-3 years) is likely not something he'd be interested in, since he has one more big contract left in his NHL career. There is a sweet spot here, though, that I believe would work for both sides.
The Leafs have only 5 forwards signed for next season and a boat load of cap space opening up at the end of the year. It's safe to say that Alexander Kerfoot and his $3.5M cap hit is not likely to be back next season. The same can be said about Wayne Simmonds and his $900K after Simmonds has spent the majority of this year as a healthy scratch. That opens up $4.4M right there. I do believe that if the Leafs wanted to make O'Reilly a fair offer at the conclusion of this season, something in the neighborhood of 5 years at $5M per season could satiate both sides.
For O'Reilly, a 5-year deal allows him to rack up an additional $25M in earnings while allowing him to still sign a multi-year deal on his following contract as a 37-year-old, much like the deal Joe Pavelski signed in Dallas as a 35-year-old back in 2019. It would also give him the flexibility to take a series of 1-year deals at the tail-end of his career, if he so chooses as well.
For the Leafs, keeping O'Reilly around long-term could be a great way to show players like Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner that they're committed to icing a competitive roster season in and season out and giving the team a great chance to win now. It could serve them well in their bid to re-sign all of their top players when they come due for new deals.
With the cap expected to rise by $1M next season, O'Reilly only costing $600K more than what the team is spending now on Kerfoot and Simmonds could certainly be an excellent use of that additional space.
It's also worth mentioning that with Jake Muzzin's playing future in doubt, and with almost the entire D corps signed through next season minus Justin Holl, Muzzin's LTIR cap relief would completely cover such a deal for O'Reilly even if the Leafs went up to $5.625M per season and then use the savings from the expiring contracts of Kerfoot and Simmonds to bring in two other players to help fill out the roster.
It's early yet and a lot can happen between now and July 1st, but I do think we see O'Reilly back in Toronto next season. He seems way too happy as a Leaf to not want to return, but I suppose we'll see what happens in the playoffs.
| POLL | ||
FEVRIER 19 | 439 ANSWERS A contract extension that makes sense for both the Leafs and the newly-acquired Ryan O'Reilly If Ryan O'Reilly would sign a 5-year extension worth $5M per season, would you like that deal? | ||
| Yes, of course! | 246 | 56 % |
| Not at all | 99 | 22.6 % |
| I could live with it | 94 | 21.4 % |
| List of polls | ||
