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Insider reveals where Leafs and Samsonov stand in contract negotiations

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Ben Hodgson
July 11, 2023  (8:14)
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Brad Treliving has quickly spent what cap space the Leafs had going into the 2023-24 season. While the team looks to be improved and more playoff ready, there is still work to be done. The team is over the cap by a significant margin. Enough so that signing Samsonov would put them over the 10% extra they're allowed to have on the books during the off season. Jake Muzzin will be placed on LTIR to start the season, but there's still around $3 million in cap left to shed, and their starting goaltender still needs a new contract.

Samsonov has elected to take negotiations on his new deal to player elected salary arbitration, usually reserved for players who are being offered far below what their asking price is. According to Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli, this isn't necessarily the case when it comes to Samsonov and the Leafs.

The mere act of electing for arbitration, regardless of whether or not a deal is reached before the hearing, opens a second buyout window for teams to get themselves cap compliant. Seravalli believes that the Leafs are actually close to a deal with Samsonov, but had him file for arbitration in order to open the second buyout window so that they can move on from Matt Murray's contract.

Ever since the first buyout window closed, I've suspected something like this was going to happen. When Treliving was asked about not using the first window to buy out Murray, he replied saying there was another one coming. Ergo, he knew Samsonov would be filing for arbitration.

What we are likely to see in the days leading up to Samsonov's case being heard is a contract signed, and Matt Murray being bought out if the Leafs can't find a trade partner before then .

Should the Leafs buy out Murray, there is a small cap penalty this season, followed by a larger one next season, but it's clear the price to trade Murray is higher than what the Leafs are willing to pay at this point. There may be a subsequent move made here as well. Depending on where Samsonov's salary lands, they may have to clear a little more cap space. The good news is that between Samsonov and Woll, the Leafs should have a solid tandem in the blue paint to start next season.

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Insider reveals where Leafs and Samsonov stand in contract negotiations

What will Samsonov's cap hit be?

2.5-3 Million6117.6 %
3-3.5 Million11633.4 %
3.5-4 Million14541.8 %
Over 4 Million257.2 %
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