Insider shares projections on next contracts for pending UFA's in Toronto; here's what the forwards can expect to earn
As the GM hunt trucks along in Toronto, that storyline is likely to be the dominant one until such a time as the Leafs have someone in place who can begin to sift through what needs to be done and make the big decisions - specifically relating to what needs to be done about Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, who all have either full NMCs or modified NTCs coming up on July 1st.
The secondary story in Toronto is going to be about what the team looks like next season in terms of which pending UFAs are allowed to walk via free agency and which the team might like to retain. Going right along with that topic is the big question; what are the pending UFAs projecting to earn as free agents if they do, in fact, make it to the open market?
DFO's Frank Seravalli did some homework on the subject late on Tuesday evening to try to figure out who the top 50 pending UFAs will be this summer. The Leafs had 7 UFAs land in the top 50 - 4 forwards and 3 defensemen. I'll be breaking this up into two pieces today; one for the forwards and one for the defensemen, just for ease of separation between the two groups.
In terms of the forwards, Seravalli had Michael Bunting, Ryan O'Reilly, Alexander Kerfoot and David Kampf listed inside of his top 50. As far as what they're projected to earn if they make it to the open market on July 1st, Seravalli used AFP Analytics to determine where guys are expected to land, though he did caution that some of these figures may be a tad low because they don't account for the climb to an $83.5M salary cap next season. Here's how the Leafs' forwards landed, according to AFP Analytics:
Ryan O'Reilly - 3 years, $5.5M per season
Alexander Kerfoot - 4 years, $3.5M per season
David Kampf - 2 years, $1.8M per season
Upon first glance, the first thing I noticed was that the Leafs will not be able to retain both of Bunting and O'Reilly unless both agree to take a substantial hometown discount. We saw Bunting leave money on the table the first time around, turning down offers with an AAV as high as $1.5M-$2M, settling for just $950K per season on a 2-year deal to stay in Toronto. Will he be willing to leave the same percentage of money on the table to return to Toronto? I don't think he will. This will be his first big contract - and for a guy who plays the game like Bunting does, it could also be his last big contract as injuries are likely to catch up with him down the line.
As far as O'Reilly goes, at 32 years old, he has one last chance to sign one more big contract before the money takes a huge plunge as he reaches his 35+ years. He did rant and rave about what an amazing organization the Leafs are and how well-run the team is, but with the departure of GM Kyle Dubas and all of the uncertainty that comes with that, it's really anyone's guess if O'Reilly will stick around as this all gets ironed out.
For Kerfoot, the projections have him with a nearly identical contract to his last one, but instead of a 3-year, $15M deal, which carried a $3.5M AAV, AFP has him signing a 4-year, $18.5M deal, which carries the same cap hit. I think the fanbase has been very clear in that it might be time to move on from Kerfoot and look to re-allocate his $3.5M elsewhere on the roster.
Lastly, David Kampf is coming off of a 2-year deal that paid him just $1.5M per season. Like Kerfoot, Kampf is another guy who isn't going to blow anyone away with his offensive numbers. However, he works his tail off and never takes a shift off. He is also a key penalty-killer and is a player who the Leafs trust to be able to defend well and move play in the right direction.
As far as who comes back and who leaves, that's really anyone's guess. Until the Leafs have a new GM in place, all of the balls that Kyle Dubas was juggling have since fallen to the ground. We'll see which ones get picked up in the coming 37 days, leading up to July 1st.
| POLL | ||
MAI 24 | 421 ANSWERS Insider shares projections on next contracts for pending UFA's in Toronto; here's what the forwards can expect to earn If the Leafs only re-sign one of the following 4 players, who would you most like to see them bring back? | ||
| Bunting at a $5.25M AAV | 14 | 3.3 % |
| Kampf at a $1.8M AAV | 115 | 27.3 % |
| Kerfoot at a $3.5M AAV | 13 | 3.1 % |
| O'Reilly at a $5.5M AAV | 279 | 66.3 % |
| List of polls | ||
