Leafs forward accused of being in a steep decline, but the numbers tell a different story
Last season and into the playoffs, there was plenty of discussion about John Tavares and how he has declined the last couple of seasons in Toronto. However, over the last two seasons, Tavares has still performed very well for the Leafs registering 76 points in 79 games in 2021-22 and 80 points in 80 games this season.
The majority of the discussion surrounding Tavares' decline is from the eye test and how he looks much slower than everyone else. That isn't something new as even when Tavares was drafted, the knock on him was his skating and slower foot speed. While Tavares did work on his skating more last off-season, he is still behind many top-six forwards in that department. While many view him as a declining asset, a look at underlying numbers shows that he is still on the edge of an "elite" player, particularly at 5v5 where he was ranked 7th in high danger chances for and had more 5v5 goals per minute this season than the likes of Steven Stamkos, Leon Draisaitl and Nikita Kucherov.
Late in the season, once the Leafs acquired Ryan O'Reilly, Sheldon Keefe moved Tavares to the wing and let O'Reilly play the middle of the ice, which seemed to help shield Tavares' lack of foot speed and actually worked very well. In their first game together against Buffalo the trio of Tavares, O'Reilly and Mitch Marner combined for 13 points, including 9 in the first 10 minutes of the game. Unfortunately, Keefe was stubborn and refused to reunite them in the playoffs against Florida when the Leafs were struggling to score.
As far as Tavares' decline, he is still a point-per-game player and a high-end offensive talent, but aside from extensions for Auston Matthews and William Nylander this off-season, Brad Treliving needs to make finding a second line center a priority so that Tavares can shift to the wing, where his skating is not as much of a concern for the Leafs.
