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One potential scenario which may sour Matthews on re-upping with the Leafs

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Ben Hodgson
February 3, 2023  (4:15 PM)
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The number one priority on Kyle Dubas' agenda as Leafs GM is and should be making sure Auston Matthews remains a Leaf for as long as possible. Matthews is arguably the best, most skilled hockey player to ever wear the blue and white. He's a 60 goal scorer who lead all forwards in blocked shots while scoring at nearly a 50 goal pace this season before going on IR with a sprained knee. He's a Hart, Ted Lindsay and Rocket Richard(twice) trophy winner, they need him to stay. He becomes eligible for an extension on July 1st this year, and a UFA exactly one year from then. Dubas MUST re sign him long before be hits free agency.

The good news? Matthews seems to love playing in Toronto, and Dubas has set the team up to have nearly $60 Million in cap space available the year Matthews' extension would kick in. It seems like retaining his services will be an easy enough task, but it's not guaranteed. Dubas will need to give Matthews every reason possible to stay.

The idea has been kicked around hockey circles that the Leafs may be better off to avoid spending assets on a big splash this season and instead go all in next year. The Bruins are likely to lose long time captain Patrice Bergeron and possibly David Kreici to retirement and they will have less cap space to maneuver with after David Pastrnak signs his extension. The Lightning will also be tight to the cap with a slew of large extensions kicking in. The Atlantic division is ridiculously strong this season, but should soften in 23-24. That's the Leafs' best shot at coming out of the Atlantic in the post season.

The Leafs also have some reinforcements on the way with Matthew Knies, Fraser Minten, Roni Hirvonen and Topi Niemela among others all looking like future NHLers. If the Leafs can avoid giving up significant draft and prospect capital for help in this season's playoffs they will be stronger for it in the long run. In my opinion, this would be the smart thing to do.

There is a catch, however. Punting at the trade deadline when the Leafs are clearly one of the better teams in the NHL this season could make it more difficult to convince Matthews to sign on the dotted line this summer. His frustration has been clear the past few seasons as the list of first round exits grows. Matthews wants to win, at the very least, he wants to see more than 7 games worth of action in the post season. Refusing to go all in this season could sour Matthews on the idea of staying here. If Matthews believes the team is competitive and is actively trying to win, convincing him to stay will be a much easier task.

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One potential scenario which may sour Matthews on re-upping with the Leafs

Should the Leafs wait until next season to go all in?

Nope, go for it now19569.1 %
It would be the smart thing5419.1 %
They're good enough now3311.7 %
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