Samsonov contract extension not yet a sure thing, according to a report
Last summer, then Washington Capitals netminder Ilya Samsonov was not issued a qualifying offer by the Caps and became a free agent. He then chose to sign a 1-year, $1.8M "prove it" deal with the Leafs. So far, he has proven himself and then some. In 41 games with the Leafs this season, Samsonov is 26-10-5 with 4 shutouts, a 2.36 GAA and .917 save percentage.
While he has performed above the level of expectation during the regular season, especially at home, with Matt Murray's latest injury, it will be up to Samsonov to now prove that his past playoff performances aren't a true reflection of what he can do. The hope is that he can help the Leafs get past the first round for the first time since 2004. Over 7 playoff games, Samsonov is a dismal 1-6 with a 2.98 GAA and .906 save percentage, both of which he will need to improve upon if the Leafs want have any hope of knocking off the Tampa Bay Lightning.
According to reports, Samsonov's next contract depends entirely on his playoff performance and whether or not the Leafs can get out of the first round. Based on Evolving Hockey's contract projections from last off-season (this season's projection is not yet available), Samsonov's most likely contract would be a 3-year deal worth just over $3M per season. If Samsonov can help the Leafs get out of the first round, however, his next deal could see him earn an AAV north of that number.
With Samsonov approaching RFA status at the end of the season, the Leafs will have most of the leverage, but Samsonov is arbitration eligible, which means that if the two sides reach an impasse during negotiations, either side can file for salary arbitration and let a neutral third part decide on an AAV that the Leafs can either accept or walk away from. If they walk away, Samsonov would land right back on the UFA market.
