Should the Leafs be all in on this pending UFA if he makes it to market?

The Leafs are reportedly also ready to move on from the failed Petr Mrazek experiment and will either buy him out or try to trade him freeing up $2.8M - $3.8M (buyout cost would be ~$1M, ~$900K, ~$1.4Mx2). There could be additional pieces that move such as Justin Holl (please) and Alexander Kerfoot which could open up an additional $5.5M in cap room. Should the Leafs trade either of Kerfoot or Holl, the return will likely be draft picks or prospects which means the Leafs will need to fill a roster spot. We know that the Buds will be looking at internal options with the Marlies to make the jump next season, and having multiple players on entry-level deals may allow the Leafs to make a bigger splash than originally anticipated in free agency. One player who they should target is currently working his way towards a three-peat with Tampa.

Ondrej Palat is the type of winger that would fit well into the Leafs middle six, but can play further up in the lineup if needed as well. He is in the final year of a 5-year deal paying him $5.3M. When he signed the deal, he was coming off of a career high 52 points and playing top 6 forward minutes. Over the past few seasons, with Tampa injecting more youth into their lineup and the emergence of Anthony Cirelli and Brayden Point, Palat found himself playing on the third line. Since signing his contract, he has yet to crack the 50-point mark, but has become one of the league's most versatile forwards.

As I said before, he can play on the top 2 lines if needed but fits well into a third line role. He also plays on the second powerplay unit in Tampa and is a regular penalty killer - something the Leafs would need with Mikheyev departing. Not much would be expected of him in the regular season based on his recent numbers, but he has proven time and time again that he thrives in the playoffs. Plus, we already know he looks good in blue and white!

Palat has 52 points in 80 playoff games during his current contract, including 8 points in 11 games this postseason. At 31 years old, his prime years are just behind him and is unlikely to get a deal longer than 4 years, taking him up to his 35+ years. He may even be willing to settle for less if the right situation comes along. Could playing alongside Auston Matthews or John Tavares be the right situation? It might be.

The most comparable contracts signed recently are those of Patric Hornqvist and Matts Zuccarello, who signed 5-year contracts at age 31. Both of those players put up more points in the years prior to signing their contracts though and received $5M or more in their deals. Given Palat's decline in production, he would be paid more based on his intangibles such as penalty killing and physicality than his points and both of those come at a cheaper rate.

If the Leafs were able to sign him to a shorter term deal under $4M it would be a quality addition to the forward group. That said, we know what happens with free agency. It's the same thing every year. Vets who have the experience and postseason success that Palat does usually tend to get overpaid, so we'll have to wait and see how this one develops, but I could see Palat being an excellent fit for a Leafs team who tends to push compete level and solid two-way play under Sheldon Keefe.