Early concerns emerging in Toronto involving Matthew Knies' contract status

Some believe that the Edmonton Oilers losing Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway is a cautionary tale for the Maple Leafs, who could face a similar fate with Matthew Knies.

Last Tuesday, the St. Louis Blues approached the camps of Broberg and Holloway with the rare opportunity to sign offer sheets, which would pay them much closer to their own perceived value than what the Oilers were offering. Naturally, both players signed -- Broberg for $4,580,917 per season through 2025-26 and Holloway for $2,290,457 over the same term.

This morning, we received word from TSN's Chris Johnston that both players will be heading to St. Louis, with the Oilers opting to take the draft compensation as opposed to matching the offers on the two former 1st round picks.

So how does this tie into Knies and the Maple Leafs? Well, Knies is eligible to sign an extension this summer and the concern is that a breakout season in his sophomore year could vastly increase his value, making him a potential target for an offer sheet next summer.

While I certainly understand the concern, I'm not so certain that I'd agree with this line of thought. Here's why.

While Broberg and Holloway envisioned themselves in more significant roles in Edmonton, and while both were aware that their team didn't value them as highly as they valued themselves, I think it's pretty clear that Knies is valued tremendously by the Maple Leafs and that the role that they envision him playing is significant. Knies is viewed by the organization as much more than just a depth roleplayer. He's an impact forward in this organization's top-6.

Knies is the current favourite to land the top line LW gig in Toronto this season, riding shotgun with Auston Matthews and one of Mitch Marner or William Nylander. It's not as though Holloway was on a shortlist of players vying for a spot next to Connor McDavid in 2024-25, which made it an easier decision for him to want to sign the offer sheet he was presented with by Blues GM Doug Armstrong.

Let's be honest. If the Blues were to approach Knies with an offer sheet next summer, there's probably a low likelihood that he's passing up the opportunity to play alongside one of his idols in fellow Arizona product Auston Matthews to slot in next to Robert Thomas, no disrespect to Thomas, of course. One is a good young centerman, and the other is a 3-time Rocket Richard Trophy, former Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award winner. I'm not sure there's much of a comparison, even though Thomas is a quality player in his own right.

I think after what Knies showed last season, notching 15 goals as a rookie, the reasonable expectation is that he's going to be at least a 20-25 goal per year guy from here on out. In addition, we've heard the word "unicorn" thrown around a lot in connection to Matthew Knies. The Leafs are aware that he is a rare talent in this day and age, a unique player, and one they're not about to take draft pick compensation on were an offer sheet scenario present itself.

The Maple Leafs are slated to have a lot of extra cap space next summer, so even in the event that they don't extend Knies, and on the off chance that he does pass up the opportunity to play with a generational talent like Auston Matrhews and sign an offer sheet, the Leafs will almost assuredly match it.

Call me crazy, but my level of concern over a potential Matthew Knies offer sheet is about as low as it could possibly be. Ignoring the fact that he would actually have to agree to sign one, I just really don't think the Leafs will even let it get to that point. Knies, if productive early on this season, will likely be presented with a number of options on a potential extension. Fail that, I'd imagine that the Leafs will prioritize getting his deal done well before July 1st, 2025.

Source: NHL.comMatthew Knies player profile

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