Maple Leafs repeating past mistakes with their handling of Matthew Knies

The Leafs have some big decisions to make. Mitch Marner still needs an extension if he's staying, which seems more likely by the day, and John Tavares' contract comes off the books next summer as well.

With that extra cap space comes a question-- How will the money be spent? Instead of waiting and figuring it out later, Toronto should be proactive. Matthew Knies will be a restricted free agent at the end of next season. The time to extend him is now.

Toronto's 2nd round pick from the 2021 NHL Draft has done nothing but impress since being drafted. The 21-year-old is a 6'3, 217 pound power forward who joined the Leafs for the 2023 playoffs after his college season ended and the Hobey Baker nominee hasn't looked back.

His first full season with the Leafs started slowly. It's taken Knies time to adjust to a full-time NHL schedule where far more games are played than in college. By spring, however, he was excellent and ended his season with a respectable 15 goals and 21 assists. He also has 7 points in his first 14 playoff games.

Knies is a dependable, two-way forward who can throw the body, win board battles and be a menace around the net. He looks poised to break out soon once he realizes just how strong he is and gets more comfortable playing 82+ games a year.

When the Maple Leafs had the opportunity to extend William Nylander and Mitch Marner early, before their entry level deals ended, they failed to do so. As such, both have enormous cap hits that would otherwise have been smaller if the trigger was pulled sooner.

The Leafs are capped out. If they want to keep running it back with this core, they have to sign promising young forwards early, before they make huge strides and earn huge cap hits. That starts with Matthew Knies.

If I'm Treliving and company, I'm pushing to get a deal done prior to the start of the season. Had they done this with William Nylander last year, maybe his cap hit is closer to that $10M mark than his eventual $11.5M cap hit.

As far as what might be a fair number for Knies, well, that's really open to interpretation. I'm not even batting an eyelash if he asks for $5.5M per season on an 8-year deal. The fact of the matter is that if the Leafs wait a year and Knies comes out this year red hot and posts 65-75 points on an upward trajectory, his ask likely starts with a 7, or perhaps an 8 with the salary cap projected to spike in the coming years.

Obviously we have no way of knowing how far along talks actually are between the team and the player, but if they haven't begun yet, Treliving is making a very big mistake.

Source for salary info: PuckPedia
Maple Leafs salary cap info