Trouble in Toronto as Matthew Knies sees ex-NCAA teammate land $68M deal

It's starting to become the norm around the NHL that many organizations are starting to extend their top young prospects before the final year of their entry-level contracts to long-term deals, overpaying up front in an attempt to get a bargain later in the deals. The Ottawa Senators did so with Jake Sanderson, the Buffalo Sabres did the same with Owen Power, and now the Minnesota Wild followed suit with Brock Faber, who signed an 8-year deal worth $8.5 million per season on Monday.

Faber was teammates with Knies when they played for the University of Minnesota in the Big-10. While both players were born in 2002, Knies was drafted one year later in 2021 due to missing out on the cut-off date for the 2020 NHL Entry Draft by a month. Faber was selected by the Los Angeles Kings in the second round in 2020 and Knies was selected by the Maple Leafs a year later.

Faber has just one full NHL-season under his belt but it was a memorable one as he finished 2nd in Calder Trophy voting behind Connor Bedard. He finished the season with 8 goals and 47 points in 82 games, averaged a ridiculous 24:58 TOI, and blocked 150 shots. The Wild wanted to get this deal done as soon as possible and in doing so they have him under contract until 2033, while also buying up several valuable UFA years in the process.

How does this relate to Knies? Well, the trend of signing players in the final year of their ELCs is becoming a very important one to follow and the Maple Leafs should know all too well what happens if and when you wait too long.

Auston Matthews was signed mid-season but still earned a 5-year deal worth $11.64 million per season on his list deal, prior to the mega deal he signed last summer, and then Mitch Marner's negotiations were dragged for as long as they could be before he signed a 6-year deal worth $10.893 million per season.

While it wasn't coming out of his ELC, William Nylander's recent negotiations also dragged into the season and his hot start contributed to his lucrative 8-year deal worth $11.5 million AAV.

Nevertheless, not only should Faber's extension signal the alarm bells that the Leafs should look to get a deal done as soon as possible for Knies but their reckless history should be another reason. Knies hasn't earned himself an $8.5 million AAV quite yet but the Leafs will assuredly want to retain him for 8 years and with the salary cap expected to continue to rise and with Knies giving up some valuable UFA years, the AAV on an 8-year deal for Knies will be anyone's guess. Given the fact that he's a winger, though, could mean the Leafs won't be paying anything near an $8.5M AAV and likely something a little closer to $6M per season.

Should they wait things out and enter the regular season without a deal, they would be taking a large gamble, especially considering many have Knies starting the year on a line with Matthews and Marner. For the moment, only time will tell what Brad Treliving and company do but the longer they wait, the higher his expected AAV rises.

Source for Brock Faber's statistics: Hockey-Reference
Brock Faber

Source for Matthew Knies' statistics: HockeyDB
Matthew Knies