A realistic preview of what Matthew Knies' contract could look like in Toronto
The Toronto Maple Leafs should roll the dice and lock up Matthew Knies as soon as possible before his asking price far exceeds what they could get him for today.
The Los Angeles Kings extended forward Quinton Byfield to a 5-year extension worth $31.25 million dollars at a cap hit of $6.25 million dollars per season this week. With recency bias always being a factor, the Leafs would be wise fo get a deal done now to avoid Knies coming in anywhere near Byfield's $6.25M cap hit.
Both players are the same age (born in 2002) with Byfield being drafted one year before Knies due to the Arizona-native being born a month after the cut-off date. Byfield has 179 NHL games under his belt as well as an additional 59 games at the AHL-level compared to Knies' 83 NHL games and 0 games in the AHL.
Knies, a second round pick from the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, spent 2 years at the University of Minnesota where he accumulated 36 goals and 75 points in 73 games before making the leap to the NHL at the end of the 2022-23 season.
Byfield, on the other hand, jumped right to professional hockey, where he played in 32 games at the AHL-level and 6 games with the Kings in 2020-21. It's been a steady climb for the Newmarket native as he collected 10 points in 40 games in 2021-22, 22 points in 53 games in 2022-23, and then 50 points in 2023-24. Essentially, the Kings are paying for his early UFA years as well as his budding potential after being selected 2nd overall.
Knies is entering the final year of his ELC and he could be in a similar boat as Byfield, which is why the Maple Leafs should primarily focus on getting a deal done before the season starts. Knies primarily played in a top-9 role last season, averaging 13:41 TOI, but still came out with 15 goals and 35 points. With the Maple Leafs not having addressed their offense this summer, Knies will have a perfect opportunity to explode onto the scene playing alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner or William Nylander and John Tavares in the top-6.
It's not out of the realm of possibility that Knies collects 25+ goals and comes very close to the 60-70 point plateau, similar to Michael Bunting's rookie season that saw him post 23 goals and 63 points while playing alongside Matthews and Marner - all the more reason for the club to prioritize an extension.
What should a Matthew Knies extension actually look like?
For Knies, a deal within the $4.5M-$5.5M range for 5-6 years would work for both sides. A 5-year deal for, example would take him to 2030, where he would still be 27-years-old and it would align with the expiring contracts of Morgan Rielly and Chris Tanev and come a couple years after Max Domi and Matthews' deals expire.
If the Maple Leafs wait this out, or better yet, if Knies' camp decides to roll the dice themselves and bet on their youngster, it could mean a contract in the realm of $6.5M-$7.5M - should he excel playing alongside Matthews and Marner. We've seen crazier things happen. The rising salary cap combined with a breakout season could change the entire game at the negotiating table.
The Maple Leafs will want to avoid another disastrous post-ELC contract even with the salary cap expected to rise as every penny is valuable with the club's Stanley Cup window wide open and considering how much of the cap the core occupies.
The Leafs also have the option of bridging Knies. Something to the tune of $3.5M over 2 years could appeal to Knies, who would then be on pace to really cash in during his prime years.
Source for Matthew Knies' statistics:Matthew Knies
Source for Quinton Byfield's statistics:Quinton Byfield
Source for why the Leafs should extend Matthew Knies ASAP:Maple Leafs repeating past mistakes with their handling of Matthew Knies
| POLL | ||
18 JUILLET | 403 ANSWERS A realistic preview of what Matthew Knies' contract could look like in Toronto What is a happy medium for a Knies extension? | ||
| 4.5 million AAV or less | 268 | 66.5 % |
| 5-5.5 million AAV | 124 | 30.8 % |
| 6 million AAV | 6 | 1.5 % |
| 6.5+ million AAV | 5 | 1.2 % |
| List of polls | ||
