John Tavares is in the last year of a seven-year contract, which he signed at the end of the 2017-18 season to come home after playing his first nine seasons with the New York Islanders.
While talks have continued throughout the fall, they may have hit a bit of a snag that should worry anyone who wants to see him back next season.
Tavares, who has played nothing short of spectacular this season, is on pace for 77 points, including 35 goals. This doesn't necessarily guarantee a contract extension, and even more, this doesn't mean that Tavares and his camp will get exactly what they want from the Maple Leafs, even if he continues on the pace that he's on.
Tavares and his camp are reportedly pushing for, reportedly, around $6.5-$7 million, while the team is willing to offer closer to $5-$6 million. They may have to figure out a way to meet in the middle, but it make require the Leafs to dig their heels in and risk losing the player.
If you want to figure out what Tavares is worth strictly based on his rate of production, look no further than Claude Giroux and Anze Kopitar, who are earning in the neighbourhood of what Tavares is asking.
During his last season in Philadelphia, Giroux maintained a 0.85 PPG. He then went on to sign a three-year contract with the Ottawa Senators with an AAV of $6.5 million. Similarly, when Los Angeles Kings captain Anze Kopitar signed a two-year extension with the Kings, he did so for $7 million. During his last year before re-upping, he had 0.9 points per game.
Leafs management will likely take a look at different players in a similar range to what they're likely offering Tavares as a potential backup plan, but they might be hard-pressed to find someone who can be as effective as Tavares can be for that cap hit.
The Leafs appear to be far more comfortable arranging a deal for Tavares closer to what the Boston Bruins offered Patrice Bergeron ($5 million per season) or the last two seasons of Joe Pavelski's deal with the Dallas Stars ($6 million & $5.5 million, respectively).
It should be noted that Tavares has done everything he's been asked to do for the Maple Leafs and more, from producing points to allowing youngsters Matthew Knies and Fraser Minten to stay with him at his family's home while they get acclimated to being professional hockey players, to even passing off the captaincy to Auston Matthews. He's been a good soldier for the Maple Leafs.
Tavares knows where he stands when looking at his career, and he's worked incredibly hard to make sure that he's not left behind as he ages. He continues to evolve as he leans on his strengths while adding new elements to his game.
The hope is that Tavares can apply that experience and knowledge as his role with the team continues to change as he ages.
If the Leafs see Tavares as more of a depth guy down the road over the next few years, you absolutely cannot pay him $7M per season. However, as a versatile role player in the middle six, I don't think many fans would have an issue to see him return for a few years at $5M.
The ball is in the court of Treliving and Tavares.
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