Insider reveals where things stand between the Leafs and one key RFA

Connor Hellebuyck is most likely out of Winnipeg, John Gibson wants out of Anaheim, the Philadelphia Flyers are listening on offers for Carter Hart, the New Jersey Devils could look to move on from Mackenzie Blackwood, and the Nashville Predators find themselves in a similar boat as the Flyers where they will listen on offers for Juuse Saros.

The Maple Leafs aren't going to be in the market for any of the aforementioned names unless something drastic changes in their off-season plans. They are relatively content with Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll patrolling the crease next year and part of that has to do with the potentially cheap cost as a duo, depending on what Samsonov draws on his next deal.

Matt Murray will most likely be bought out or traded, which will give the Leafs an additional $4 million to play with since a buyout will only accrue a cap hit of $687,500 for 2023-24. However, a buyout would hit them for a little over $2 million in dead cap next season, but the salary cap is expected to rise quite a bit in 2024-25.

There hasn't been any notion or mention that the Leafs are going to be looking elsewhere from Samsonov and it helps that the Russian netminder is a pending RFA. He signed a prove-it deal this summer at a low cost of $1.8 million and will be looking for a modest raise this summer.

Lebrun noted:

"The Leafs, meanwhile, have shown interest in re-signing pending RFA Ilya Samsonov. So long as both sides can figure out the sweet spot, looks like he'll be back in Toronto."

The goaltending market is white hot right now and many teams are flummoxed in trying to find the right netminder to push them over the edge. The Leafs feel comfortable with Samsonov after a good first season in Toronto, but one has to assume he will be looking for a deal somewhere in the range of $4 million - a deal similar to that of Carter Hart's 3x$3.979M.

Samsonov has played in parts of 4 seasons and has sported a 79-32-13 record with a .908 SV% and a 2.65 G.A.A on two very good teams in Washington and Toronto. Hart on the other hand is 84-84-26 in 5 seasons with a pretty bad Flyers team - with the exception of 2019-20 - and has a .906 SV% and a 2.96 G.A.A.

Hart's 3 year deal worth $3.979 million per season was signed after he went 49-37-9 in parts of 3 seasons with a .905 SV% and a 2.88 G.A.A - numbers relatively close to those of Samsonov right now.

Samsonov is coming off a season where he went 27-10-5 with a .919 SV% and a 2.33 G.A.A during the regular season but sported a .898 SV% and a 3.13 G.A.A despite playing very well in the first round. He provided shaky goaltending for the Capitals which is why they decided to part ways with him at the age of 25.

Nevertheless he showed flashes of brilliance in 2022-23 and played a pivotal role during in the first round of the playoffs helping the Leafs advance to the second round for the first time since 2003-04. LeBrun noted that both sides need to find a sweet spot and a deal around $4 million should get it done and wouldn't be an overly egregious deal either.